نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 31 (بهار و تابستان 1400)

The existing studies on the status of age pattern of marriage of Iranian women are mainly based on various hypotheses such as marriage squeeze and changes in the marriage market. However, by increasing the share of educated women, education can affect the age pattern and delay in women's marriage independently. Emphasizing on the effect of education on the age pattern of marriage, this article attempts to evaluate average changes in the years of celibacy of women using cohort and cross-sectional analysis. For this purpose, cross-sectional data were generated for the 2016 and cohort data for three hypothetical cohorts born in the periods 1981-86, 1986-91 and 1991-96 by educational levels and urban and rural areas. Then, using the Cole's proposed method, the cohort experience of women's marriage was completed for all three cohorts and the cohort and cross-sectional marriage ratios by education and urban-rural areas were entered into the nuptiality life table. The findings indicate that the highest average years of celibacy are related to university women, so that the cohort born in 1986-91 will experience the longest delay and the cohort born in 1991-96 will experience the least delay in marriage. The comparison of urban and rural data indicates that with an increase in level of education, rural women will experience more delay in marriage than urban women.

The age at marriage is an important factor in population dynamics that affects fertility, mortality and migration. Therefore, the present article studies changes in the pattern of the ideal age at marriage of girls and boys based on their demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The data have been drawn from the 2004 National Survey of Iranian Cultural Changes and the 2015 National Survey of Iranian Values and Attitudes. The findings show that the average age at marriage of girls and boys has increased by almost one year during this period. The average ideal age at marriage of girls has increased from 20.3 years in 2004 to 21.2 years in 2015 and the average ideal age at marriage of boys has increased from 24.8 years in 2004 to 25.7 years in 2015. The role of different variables have changed over the years but education has always been a key and effective factor in explaining the variation in the ideal age at marriage of both sexes compared to other variables. Job status and socio-economic status did not have an effect in 2004 but they were effective in 2015. Considering the importance of education and employment in the attitude towards marriage in recent years, we need to formulate supportive policies in these two areas in order to change the formation of family and facilitate marriage.

This article concerns with elderly remarriage. Its aim is to understand the viewpoint of widowed and remarried elderly about remarriage using an interpretative approach. This study has been conducted in the city of Saghez in Iranian Kurdistan. It applies a qualitative ethnographic approach. Using purposive sampling, 20 elderly women and men (widow/remarried) were selected and interviewed in depth. The interview texts were analyzed based on the conventional qualitative content analysis method. The findings suggest that there is a "dual gendered attitude" among the elderly women and men toward remarriage. Both "remaining widow" and "remarrying" later in life occur willingly and unwillingly. In some cases, they "have to" remain widow and in other cases marry again. Elderly remarriage in this city encounters different social and economic obstacles. However, the findings show that there are "forerunners" in elderly remarriage. Challenged with numerous family and social norms, this demand tries to open a room for elderly remarriage in the public sphere. The findings of this study can be adopted to formulate micro- and macro-level policies for elderly population.

Surrogacy is one of the new assisted reproductive technologies (ART). The purpose of this study is to fill one of the research gaps in this area, i.e. the motivations of surrogate mothers and their commitment to the baby during pregnancy and delivery. The study was conducted using the qualitative method and the grounded theory approach. Data were collected using two techniques of participatory observation and semi-structured interviews with 12 surrogate mothers. The data were analyzed based on open, axial and selective coding and a paradigm model was presented. According to the findings, in the Iranian cultural context where infertility has long been a problem, the economic needs and hardships of surrogate mothers, the desire and demand of infertile couples to have children through assisted reproductive technologies act as structural components. The cultural values of the society such as religiosity and altruism are other motivations. The most important intervening factors are loneliness, limited social network and low social support, which have provided the basis for the phenomenon of "benevolent body/ kheirmandi badan". This means that surrogate mothers feel a great responsibility to care for the fetus. They try to take care of the fetus both physically and spiritually. Therefore, here we see a kind of mutual benevolence and usefulness, with the female body being the main mediator.

Fertility changes have been the most important population issue in Iran in recent years, which led to the announcement of population policies, emphasizing the role of all organizations related to population issues. The purpose of this study is to investigate the fertility trend at the last three censuses based on the parity progression ratio. This indicator shows the proportion of women of a given parity who want more children. Therefore, the information about married women aged 15 to 49 in the 2% of the sample of the 2006 to 2016 census, which is equivalent to 983,000 persons, were analyzed. Parity progression ratios were almost constant from childless to one child (85%) and from one child to two children (76%) but decreased from three to four children (75% to 61%). The cumulative fertility increased from 2.3 in 2006 to 5.2 in 2016. As a result, the fertility of married women is acceptable but population policies based on strengthening economic and welfare infrastructure such as reducing inflation, increasing employment and improving housing will lead to increased marriage and ultimately enhance childbearing.

During the last few decades, reducing fertility rates to the below replacement level has been widespread in Iran but the experience of Gilan province is significant in this regard. According to the latest estimates in 2020, the total fertility rate of this province was 1 child. The present study aims to investigate the subjective reasons for low fertility rates. The theoretical approach of the study is the approach of Pierre Bourdieu's capital and the concept of "cultural capital" and its constituent components (embodied, objectified and institutionalized). The research method is survey, the data collection tool is questionnaire, the statistical population is married women aged 15-49 in Rasht, the method is random cluster sampling and the sample size is 391. The findings show that childlessness and low childbearing are common reproductive behaviors and the majority of respondents (about 67%) do not decide to reproduce. According to the findings, there is a significant and inverse relationship between cultural capital and all its dimensions (embodied, objectified and institutional) and reproductive behavior (the number of live births per woman) and with increasing cultural capital, fertility decreases. Accordingly, although structural factors play a role in fertility, attitudes, tastes, values and consequently choices are also important and there is a need to harmonize the mental expectations and objective position of families.

Theoretical models and experimental evidence demonstrate a complex. multi-dimensional and mutual relationship between education and migration. Internal migration plays an and movements in Iran. On the other hand, education has an important role in decision making and migrating. The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between education and internal migration using the micro- (or individual-) and aggregate-level data from the 2016 census. The results indicated that the inter-county migration balance has been negative for about three-fourths of the counties between 2011 and 2016. The results also confirm that there is a positive correlation between higher education and net migration rates. However, the association between education and net migration varies in different developmental contexts.; in less developed counties, a higher proportion of highly educated population is associated with a more negative NMR. In contrast, in more developed counties, a higher proportion of highly educated population is associated with a more positive NMR. In addition, the analysis of micro-level data showed that the internal migration intensity increases with an increase in the level of educational. So that, the migration intensity is ten time larger for those with a PhD degree, compared to illiterates. In migration balance, thus, more-developed counties gain more human capital and less developed counties, on the other hand, lose their highly educated population and human capital. The continuation of this condition is expected to lead to more socio-regional inequalities.

The phenomenon of population aging is one of the most important economic, social and health challenges in the present century. Population changes can have a profound and important impact on economic growth. The aim of this study was to investigate and analyze the effect of population aging on economic growth in 20 member countries of MENA and Pakistan (MANAP) in the period 1960-2019 using two models of generalized method of moments (GMM) and panel vector autoregressive (PVAR). The results of the present study show that a one percent increase in population growth has led to an increase of 0.0021 in economic growth, while a one percent increase in the variables of the share of the elderly population (65 years and older) and the dependency ratio of the elderly population to the working age population decreases the economic growth by 0.2804 and 0.014, respectively. According to the research results, it is recommended that the government introduces incentive policies for population growth, including maternity leave for women, allocating financial resources to households to bear children and other financial supports to parents, as well as policies to reduce the effects of population aging, including increased capital accumulation and using capitalist methods in production and increased labor productivity through training and skills development.

Malnutrition is a big challenge in population and anti-poverty policy making. It could adversely affect productivity and lower income, which result in a food poverty trap. A diverse set of socio-economic factors affect malnutrition. Income growth could be an important factor in lowering malnutrition. However, a key requirement is that calorie and macronutrients demand also increase with income. In this paper we use parametric and non-parametric methods to estimate the income elasticity of calorie and macronutrients (protein, carbohydrates, and fat) for urban areas of Iran. We combine data from urban household income and expenditure surveys between 2008 and 2016 to calculate income, purchased calorie and macronutrients of households. The non-parametric results show that the income elasticity is significantly different from zero in low-income households but becomes insignificant in higher deciles. The parametric results show that the income elasticity of calorie and macronutrients are between 0.18 and 0.27. Thus, policies that enhance household income are effective in reducing malnutrition.

Death registration coverage is under-registered in developing countries. The aim of this study is to investigate the coverage of death registration in Iran during the period 1996 to 2016. The data include population data from the 1996 to 2016 censuses and the current registered death data during the same period. After evaluation of the population and death data, the death registration coverage has been estimated. The death registration coverage coefficients have been estimated using the Extended Synthetic Extinct Generations method for different age ranges by sex and for the three periods of 1996 to 2006, 2006 to 2011 and 2011 to 2016 in the whole country. The average adult death registration coverage coefficients in the mentioned periods were estimated at 76.7 to 78.9, 86.2 to 88.8, and 87.7 to 89.9 for men and 71.7 to 72.5, 79.2 to 80.9, and 82.8 to 84.6 for women, respectively. The results show that although the death registration data have less registration error, these data can be corrected and can be used to directly estimate mortality indicators by age and sex and to identify the trend and level of mortality in the country.

The aim of this study is to identify the existing capacities in improving life expectancy at birth. So, the role of age groups and the main causes of death in provincial differences in life expectancy at birth in 2016 have been investigated in Iran. Life expectancy at birth was calculated using the National Organization for Civil Registration data. In addition, data on the causes of death by age and sex have been obtained from the registration system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. After correcting the death data, the role of age groups and causes of death in the provincial differences in life expectancy were calculated using the Arriaga decomposition method. The results suggested that Sistan and Baluchestan province has the lowest and Isfahan and Alborz provinces have the highest life expectancy at birth in Iran, which shows a difference of about 8 years in life expectancy. Furthermore, almost all ages positively affected the life expectancy of provinces with higher life expectancy than the national level. Cardiovascular diseases and unintentional accidents were the most important causes of the difference in life expectancy in the provinces of Iran. Based on the findings, it seems that the differences in life expectancy at the provincial level are due to inequality in development.

Numerous studies in recent decades have examined the dimensions and consequences of internal migration in Iran. Using a scoping review and Arksey and O'Malley methodological framework, this article examines studies of internal migration in the last three decades to provide a comprehensive picture of the characteristics, dimensions, determinants and consequences of internal migration in Iran. The results indicate the dominance of quantitative methods and survey data in internal migration studies. More than half of studies focused on rural-urban migration and about one-fifth on migration flows and its consequences to Tehran province. Also, according to the results, more than 52% of studies examined determinants of internal migration, 31% various consequences of migration at the origin and destination, 13% internal migration trends and patterns and finally, 3% demographic characteristics of migrants. In addition, the results showed that unequal development, centralization of economic and educational facilities and opportunities, climate change, income disparities, job acquisition and social networks are among the most important factors underlying internal migration in Iran. However, the field of internal migration in the country needs using new indicators and criteria for international comparisons, addressing the emerging dimensions and patterns of migration and using the methodology of qualitative studies.